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<Research> G Sachs Expects Stronger RMB Appreciation, Raises Year-end Forecast to 6.7 per USD
G Sachs released a report expecting further and stronger appreciation of the RMB. The bank noted that exactly one year ago, it shifted to a bullish view and forecast on the RMB. At...
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<Research> G Sachs Expects Stronger RMB Appreciation, Raises Year-end Forecast to 6.7 per USD
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G Sachs released a report expecting further and stronger appreciation of the RMB. The bank noted that exactly one year ago, it shifted to a bullish view and forecast on the RMB. At that time, the market also regarded US-China trade negotiations as a catalyst, and the recent enthusiasm for going long RMB is likewise premised on a successful summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. While the bank agrees that such a summit could be an important signal in stabilizing trade relations, it believes the foundation for RMB strength is more fundamental and durable.Chinas external surplus as a share of global GDP is approaching unprecedented levels, reflecting deep export competitiveness and a significantly undervalued exchange rate. Currency appreciation is the equilibrium outcome of these forces. Despite significant recent shifts in fundamentals and market conditions, these underlying drivers have not materially changed. Although the Iran war and energy shocks have had short-term negative impacts on Chinas trade balance, including higher energy prices and downward revisions to growth forecasts of Chinas trading partners (particularly lower-income emerging economies), the same shocks could accelerate global investment in energy security and renewable energy over the medium term. Given Chinas dominant position in clean energy supply chains, this would provide a positive boost to Chinas exports.

On the exchange rate, modest nominal appreciation combined with a rebound in domestic inflation has resulted in real appreciation. However, based on the weighted average of the banks two valuation models, the RMB against the USD remains more than 20% undervalued and, on a real trade-weighted basis, is among the cheapest levels in recent decades. Recent strong pricing behavior and a gradual rise in exporters FX settlement ratios indicate to the bank that a gradual but persistent appreciation path remains the appropriate baseline scenario.Accordingly, the bank has rolled forward its year-end target for USD/RMB to 6.70 and further extended its outlook for RMB strength. Its new forecasts for USD/RMB are 6.80 in three months, 6.70 in six months, and 6.50 in twelve months (previously 6.85, 6.80, and 6.70). The new twelve-month forecast is notably stronger than market consensus and forward market pricing. (ad/u)~

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