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《經濟》香港5月標普採購經理指數(PMI)升至50.4 三個月來首度擴張
標普全球公布,經季調後,香港5月採購經理指數(PMI)由前值48.6升至50.4,反映改善幅度雖然不大,但香港特區營商環境已重拾景氣。期內出口貿易穩健增長,新訂單量於是微升,惠及經營活動3個月以來首度擴張。業務情緒雖仍悲觀,但已淡化至3個月最低。價格方面,採購價格飆漲,因此整體投入成本攀升。至於產出售價,同時獲得了調整,而加價幅度則比上月的顯著步伐稍微放緩。...
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《經濟》香港5月標普採購經理指數(PMI)升至50.4 三個月來首度擴張
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標普全球公布,經季調後,香港5月採購經理指數(PMI)由前值48.6升至50.4,反映改善幅度雖然不大,但香港特區營商環境已重拾景氣。
期內出口貿易穩健增長,新訂單量於是微升,惠及經營活動3個月以來首度擴張。業務情緒雖仍悲觀,但已淡化至3個月最低。價格方面,採購價格飆漲,因此整體投入成本攀升。至於產出售價,同時獲得了調整,而加價幅度則比上月的顯著步伐稍微放緩。
新增訂單在5月也重回擴張區間,惟相關指數經季調後,僅略高於50持平線。受訪業者通常表示,新產品問世為訂單增長帶來支持,但也有其他公司指出,競爭激烈加上本地經濟低迷,整體銷售受到拖累。總的來說,企業的商品和服務獲海外巿場進一步青睞,帶動整體新訂單增長;從事實角度看,則5月的出口訂單有實則增長,表現也是3個月以來最突出。
適值新訂單由跌轉升,積壓工作的5月份跌幅亦見收斂。值得關注的是,減速是目前3個月緊縮期內最慢,偏於輕微。受訪公司提到,產能情況足夠應付目前工作,因此沒有填補離職空缺,就業人數隨之下跌;不過,職位減幅並不太大。
對於採購物料,5月增長幅度較上月放緩。最新調查資料顯示,採購數量溫和上升,而企業就此提到,經營活動增長相對偏弱,加上搜購和收取物料存在困難,因此增購不多。此外,受訪公司表示,供應商的供貨表現3個月以來首次轉差,資料提到中東戰爭造成船期延誤,導致交付時間拖延。另一方面,採購庫存持續增加,但擴張速度卻降至12個月最慢。
投入成本5月的通脹速度減慢,惟依然偏高。對於營運開支攀升,企業通常認為原材料價格上揚,導致採購價格以2021年12月以來的最大幅度飆漲。與此同時,員工成本溫和上升,增幅為今年3月以來最小。從銷售價格來看,受訪公司常藉調高售價而向客戶轉嫁成本,因此持續大幅上升;不過,也有多家企業為刺激銷量而向客戶提供折扣。
展望未來一年經營前景,業者於5月持續看淡,惟悲觀情緒已淡化至3個月以來最淺,但依然偏高。受訪業者表示,業務展望備受價格高企、關稅政策,以及地緣政治風險等因素影響。
標普全球市場財智經濟學家Usamah Bhatti稱,5月香港特區採購經理指數重返擴張區間,是3個月以來首次。營商環境改善不大,PMI很大程度反映了經營活動回歸增長,以及新訂單微升。企業提到,新出口訂單在5月有實質增長,而且擴張速度加快,反而本地需求低迷,整體銷情持續受壓。
與此同時,他表示,企業營運不斷浮現成本壓力沉重的訊號,這從採購價格升幅創四年半最高可見,而當中又以原物料價格攀升佔主導地位,尤其是燃油相關產品,漲幅更為厲害。不過,有受訪公司為刺激銷量,於是推出減價優惠,產出售價的整體升幅比上月收窄,反映企業特意消化若干成本增幅。
他補充,雖然營商環境稍微好轉,但企業對未來一年經營前景卻持續關注。資料透露,地緣政治風險、價格高昂、關稅政策等因素,皆於5月影響業者的業務展望。(da/u)
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