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G Sachs No Longer Expects Fed to Cut Rates This Year, Sees Limited Chance of Hike
G Sachs said in a report last Fri (5th) that, due to a stronger-than-expected US labor market, it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. The bank ha...
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G Sachs No Longer Expects Fed to Cut Rates This Year, Sees Limited Chance of Hike
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G Sachs said in a report last Fri (5th) that, due to a stronger-than-expected US labor market, it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. The bank has postponed its forecasts for the final two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from Dec 2026 and Mar 2027 to Jun 2027 and Dec 2027. However, G Sachs Chief US Economist David Mericle stated that as inflation is becoming "less likely to be self-sustaining," the likelihood of a rate hike remains limited.

Before the report was released, US job growth in May exceeded all forecasts, indicating resilience in the labor market and prompting market bets that the central bank may raise interest rates this year to curb price pressures stemming from the Iran war. Bond investors are already pricing in a quarter-percentage-point rate hike by Dec.

While G Sachs still sees a low probability of rate hikes, it has raised the likelihood of a small rate increase from 10% to 20% as Federal Reserve officials adopt a more hawkish tone and economic activity remains resilient.

Its baseline forecast continues to project two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts next year, but the probability of this outcome has been lowered from 40% to 30%. G Sachs also reduced its US unemployment rate forecast for this year from 4.6% to 4.4%.

The report noted that a longer pause in rate cuts could reinforce the view that interest rates are "at an appropriate level," while strong AI-related investment demand may strengthen the case for maintaining higher borrowing costs for longer. G Sachs added that keeping rates unchanged remains "a reasonable alternative option" outside its baseline forecast. (da/u)~

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