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大摩將第三及第四季布蘭特期油均價預測降至每桶90美元及80美元
大摩下調未來數個季度油價預測,以反映美國與伊朗達成重新開放霍爾木茲海峽協議後,預計地區石油產量將恢復。大摩預計布蘭特期油第三季平均價格為每桶90美元,低於此前的100美元;第四季平均價格為每桶80美元,先前預測為95美元。大摩稱,仍有許多問題需要談判,主要風險依然存在,但就目前而言,整體方向仍然是朝著衝突緩和、提高霍爾木茲海峽石油出口量前進。大摩提到,要恢復...
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大摩將第三及第四季布蘭特期油均價預測降至每桶90美元及80美元
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大摩下調未來數個季度油價預測,以反映美國與伊朗達成重新開放霍爾木茲海峽協議後,預計地區石油產量將恢復。大摩預計布蘭特期油第三季平均價格為每桶90美元,低於此前的100美元;第四季平均價格為每桶80美元,先前預測為95美元。
大摩稱,仍有許多問題需要談判,主要風險依然存在,但就目前而言,整體方向仍然是朝著衝突緩和、提高霍爾木茲海峽石油出口量前進。
大摩提到,要恢復生產首先需要清空出口油罐,這意味著空油輪進入海灣的速度可以比滿載油輪離開的速度更為重要。目前預計石油產量將從7月中旬開始逐步提高,假設50%的損失產量將在9月恢復,80%將在12月恢復,而其餘部分將在明年初恢復。
國際油價今早(16日)偏軟,布蘭特期油跌0.32%至82.9美元,紐約期油跌0.12%至80.65美元。(mn/a)
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