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《大行》高盛料聯儲局維持利率不變 刪除先前暗示減息前瞻指引
美國聯儲局周二展開一連兩天的議息會議。高盛發表報告,自上次美國聯儲局會議以來,經濟數據中最重大的變化是就業增長顯著回升,使勞動市場步入更穩健的軌道。這使得焦點轉向通脹狀況是否已達到令人憂心的程度,足以支持加息。戰爭與油價上漲可能推動整體個人消費支出物價(PCE)通脹率突破4%,並使核心PCE通脹率全年維持在3%以上。但迄今為止,通脹的影響看起來更像是大型油價...
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《大行》高盛料聯儲局維持利率不變 刪除先前暗示減息前瞻指引
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美國聯儲局周二展開一連兩天的議息會議。高盛發表報告,自上次美國聯儲局會議以來,經濟數據中最重大的變化是就業增長顯著回升,使勞動市場步入更穩健的軌道。這使得焦點轉向通脹狀況是否已達到令人憂心的程度,足以支持加息。戰爭與油價上漲可能推動整體個人消費支出物價(PCE)通脹率突破4%,並使核心PCE通脹率全年維持在3%以上。但迄今為止,通脹的影響看起來更像是大型油價衝擊的常規傳導效應,而非疫情期間廣泛的供給短缺與價格飆升。
高盛仍認為加息可能性不高,原因有二:一是聯儲局過去通常不會因應油價衝擊而加息;二是當前的環境,尤其是勞動市場更為均衡的狀態,使得油價衝擊引發自續性高通脹的可能性降低。話雖如此,目前已出現一些令人擔憂的跡象,若通脹預期顯著上升,或高通脹現象廣泛擴及各類別,則加息可能性將提高。
在6月會議上,亦即新任主席沃什(Kevin Warsh)主持的首次會議,美國聯儲局很可能維持利率不變,並刪除先前暗示降息的前瞻指引。高盛預期聯儲局僅會從會後聲明中刪除「額外調整的幅度與時機」此一用語(指聯邦基金利率的調整),但聲明中仍有相當大的空間可進一步簡化。
與轉向平衡指引的基調一致,高盛預期中位數點陣圖顯示2026年利率維持不變,其中三位與會者預期今年稍晚將加息一次。然而,高盛預期中位數點陣圖最終仍顯示兩次降息,最可能分別落在2027年與2028年各一次。部分中性利率的點位可能上移,但中位數不太可能上升。高盛假設沃什基於其過去對前瞻指引的批評,將不會提交個人點陣圖,但高盛對此不確定。
高盛表示,2026年的經濟預測可能顯示GDP增長率略微下修(-0.2個百分點至第四季對第四季年化2.2%)、失業率略降(-0.1個百分點至4.3%),以及整體通脹率(+1.2個百分點至3.9%)與核心通脹率(+0.6個百分點至3.3%)大幅上修。高盛預期2027年通脹預測將上修0.1個百分點至2.3%,意味戰爭對通脹的影響將僅限於今年以內。
由於核心通脹年增率可能需要相當長的時間才能接近2%,高盛已將最後兩次降息納入預測,時間點分別在2027年6月與12月。若長時間按兵不動,則若經濟持續表現良好,美國聯儲局改而認為聯邦基金利率已處於適當水平的機率將增加,高盛認為利率維持平緩是基線預測之外的合理替代情境。儘管如此,高盛的機率加權後聯儲局預測仍明顯較市場定價更為鴿派,主要反映高盛對加息抱持懷疑態度。(ad/j)
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