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<Research>BofAS Expects Coal Prices to Stabilize, Maintains Neutral View on Sector, Raises TPs for Coal Stocks
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The prices of China's thermal coal/ coking coal were RMB680/ RMB1,280 per ton each YTD, a total decline of about 50% from 2022, according to BofA Securities' research report. The broker maintained a neutral view on the coal industry.

Due to slowed supply growth and reduced coal imports, coupled with strong coal demand and support for thermal coal prices amid China's anti-involution trend, prices are estimated to stabilize in 2H25 through 2026. BofA Securities raised its 2025/ 2026 contract price forecasts to RMB670 per ton.

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The broker raised its 2025-2027 earnings forecasts for CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) by 7-29%, and lifted its target price from $32 to $38, with rating kept at Neutral.

Moreover, BofA Securities raised its 2026/ 2027 earnings forecasts for YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK) by 20-21%, and added its target price from $8 to $9, with rating reiterated at Underperform. The broker reaffirmed rating at Neutral for CHINA COAL (01898.HK), and lifted its target price from $8.5 to $11.
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