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<Research>UBS Expects HIBOR to Stabilize at 2-2.5% by End-3Q, Maintains Cautious Stance on HK Commercial Property Risks
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UBS released a research report predicting that HIBOR will stabilize at 2-2.5% by the end of 3Q25. In the medium to short term (3-6 months), BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) remains UBS' top pick among its covered Hong Kong banks, although the stock price may experience a short-term decline.

The broker kept ratings at Neutral on BOC HONG KONG and BANK OF E ASIA (00023.HK), with rating at Sell for Hang Seng Bank.

Related NewsHSBC Research Expects CN Banks' 2Q NP to Surpass 1Q, but Prefers CN Insurers/ Brokers Over Banks
UBS reiterated its cautious stance on the risks associated with Hong Kong commercial real estate, as the rebound in HIBOR may exacerbate the risk of non-performing loans in banks' exposure to Hong Kong commercial real estate, further increasing provisioning pressure.

UBS recently downgraded Hang Seng Bank from Neutral to Sell due to rising credit costs and potential dividend cuts in 2025.
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