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<Research>M Stanley Expects CN Sep Retail Demand to Struggle for Significant Recovery; Focus on Consumer Stocks' Recovery Speed & Price Trends
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Mainland China's retail sales growth in August continued to ease to 3.4%, compared to 3.7% in July, falling short of the market expectation of 3.8%, reflecting persistently weak consumer demand, Morgan Stanley's research report indicated. As for September, under a deflationary environment and the fading effect of subsidies, the broker forecast demand to struggle for a significant recovery.

Regarding stocks, the broker believed that the focus in 2H25 will be on the speed of recovery, with price trends being a key factor influencing stock re-rating; and consumer-driven policies may provide some support for demand sentiment. Among high-growth stocks, the broker favored POP MART (09992.HK) and GIANT BIOGENE (02367.HK), with target prices of HKD382 and HKD78, respectively, both rated as Overweight.

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For companies with resilient earnings and stable shareholder returns, including Yum China (YUMC.US) and ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK), target prices were set at USD57 and HKD128, respectively, both rated as Overweight.
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