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<Research>Citi: PBOC Likely to Cut Rates & RRR in Jan 2026; New Property Policies May Emerge After Central Economic Work Conference
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Citi wrote in its research report that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has already maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. From the published data, Citi further noticed that fiscal policy had effectively entered a consolidation phase, as no new real estate measures have been introduced recently despite weak real estate data in October. In Citi's estimate, the next policy window will come after the Central Economic Work Conference, which was held from December 11 to 12 last year. The conference may suggest maintaining the growth target at "around 5%" to ensure a smooth transition to the new five-year plan, and policymakers may attempt to start 2026 robustly in order to meet the target. Citi believes the next two months will be the window for the PBOC's first interest rate cut and deposit reserve ratio reduction, most likely in January next year. In addition, a new round of real estate policy support measures may occur after the Central Economic Work Conference. However, the central government is not expected to intervene using its balance sheet, instead it may roll out incremental measures to further support demand. AAStocks Financial News |
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