Latest Search
Quote
| Back Zoom + Zoom - | ||||
|
<Research>JPM Expects Stronger Real Estate Policy Support in CN, Prefers CHINA RES LAND
Recommend 19 Positive 21 Negative 9 |
||||
|
||||
|
JP Morgan's research report highlighted that the latest commentary in the official CCP publication "Qiushi" magazine boosted investor hopes. The commentary called for policies to be "introduced sufficiently all at once, not in a piecemeal manner", suggesting a possible shift in the official stance towards the real estate market this year after a lack of substantial policy last year. Given the continued deterioration in housing prices and sales since 2H25, JP Morgan believed it is logical for policymakers to consider new narratives/ directions. However, the report noted that the article alone is not sufficient to indicate a change in the official stance, with the next policy window being the "Two Sessions" in March and the Politburo meeting in April. Since 2021, the Chinese real estate sector has consistently underperformed the market, JP Morgan said. For 2026, under the base case (assuming no substantial policy), JP Morgan forecast the downtrend will continue (sales down 7%, housing prices down 5%). However, the current market environment (especially if weak housing prices drag on consumption) increases the likelihood of stronger policy support this year, presenting upside risks to JP Morgan's current forecast. JP Morgan's top picks were CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK), CHINA RES MIXC (01209.HK), and CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK). In a policy-driven rebound, LONGFOR GROUP (00960.HK) was believed to offer the best risk-reward. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
||||
Copied to Clipboard
 |
||||
