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<Research>G Sachs Forecasts Continued Competition in CN Auto Sector in 2026, Favors BYD COMPANY & XPENG Overseas Biz Layout
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Capital expenditure and output expansion within the industry remain ongoing, Goldman Sachs released a research report saying.

It is anticipated that, by 2026, an additional 2 million units of incremental production capacity will be added, with approx. 700,000 units located in overseas markets. Meanwhile, although most car manufacturers' revenues still exceed cash costs, profit declines are intensifying.

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Looking ahead to 2026, Goldman Sachs expected fierce competition in mainland China's auto sector to continue, with 119 NEV models anticipated to launch within the year. Domestic passenger car sales are projected to shift from a positive growth of 4% in 2025 to a decline of 2%, while NEV sales growth is expected to slow from 18% to 11%.

Overall, Goldman Sachs forecasted wholesales to remain roughly flat YoY in 2026, and believed that BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) and XPENG-W (09868.HK) are in relatively better positions in terms of overseas business expansion, thanks to the accelerated launch of new export models and the expansion of sales network.

Therefore, the broker's target prices for BYD COMPANY's H-/ A-shares are $141/ RMB144, and its target prices for XPENG-W's H-shares/ US stock are $96/ US$25, with all rated at Buy.

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