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<Research>JPM: No Major Surprises in NPC Policy; CN 2026 GDP Growth Expected at 4.7%
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The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) opened yesterday (5th). The main numerical targets announced at the meeting are largely in line with JPMorgan's expectations, including 2026 GDP growth target being lowered to 4.5-5%, the budget deficit target remaining at 4%, and the CPI inflation target staying around 2%, according to JPMorgan's research report. However, the ten main economic tasks for 2026 are consistent with the eight key tasks proposed at the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025, indicating no change in policy direction. JPMorgan forecasted China's annual GDP growth rate at 4.7%, which is the median of the range. However, given the continued weak domestic demand, the broker still believed that achieving the 2% CPI inflation target faces significant challenges, and predicted an average CPI inflation rate of 0.7% for 2026, with energy and commodity prices being key variables affecting inflation fluctuations due to recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The complete '15th Five-Year Plan' is currently under review by the NPC. Despite weak domestic demand and a highly uncertain and volatile external environment, the plan's content holds no surprises, JPMorgan added. However, the broker still expected China's actual GDP growth to remain within a reasonable range, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate staying below 5.5%. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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