Latest Search
Quote
| Back Zoom + Zoom - | ||||
|
OCBC: If Brent Oil Rises to USD100 per Barrel and Fed Delays Rate Cuts, HK Growth Forecast May Be Cut to 2.2%
Recommend 1 Positive 1 Negative 1 |
||||
|
||||
|
OCBC economist in Hong Kong, Jiang Jing, stated that if international oil prices remain high, market inflation expectations will rise, leading to concerns that central banks in regions like the US may not only refrain from cutting rates but might even reverse course and increase rates, negatively impacting Hong Kong's economy. Assuming Brent oil reaches USD100 per barrel in the second quarter and the Federal Reserve delays rate cuts, Jiang Jing will lower Hong Kong's GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.6% to 2.2%, and raise the CPI forecast from 1.6% to 1.9%. Jiang mentioned that although US Treasury yields have risen, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has declined, reflecting some capital inflow into Hong Kong. Due to the significant interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the US, it is expected that carry trades involving selling HKD to buy USD will continue, potentially causing the HKD to reach the weak-side convertibility undertaking, further reducing the aggregate balance of the banking system and pushing HIBOR higher. She noted that the current HIBOR is too low, and the reasonable level for the one-month interbank rate this year should be between 2.5% and 2.6%. It is expected to be higher before the half-year end in late June, estimated at around 2.6% to 2.7%. (ha/j) Auto-translated by third-party software This translation was auto-generated by third-party software. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. More Details
Website: www.aastocks.com |
||||
Copied to Clipboard
 |
||||
