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<Econ>Germany's Internal Estimate Suggests Iran Conflict Could Halve Annual Economic Growth
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Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that the German government's internal estimate suggests that if the conflict in Iran continues to drag on, Germany's economic growth rate could be only half of the initially expected rate.

According to the sources, in the worst-case scenario, if the Middle East crisis continues to prolong, the economic growth rate will be only 0.5%, below the recent forecast of 1%. Under a more moderate assumption, if oil and gas prices remain at current levels in the coming weeks, the economic growth rate will range between 0.6% and 0.7%. This scenario also indicates that next year's economic growth rate will decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 1.2%.

The Middle East crisis is forcing Eurozone countries to reassess their economic outlook. The European Central Bank last week already lowered its economic growth forecast, and the Italian government is reportedly preparing to cut this year's economic growth forecast to a minimum of 0.5%. The German central bank also lowered its economic expectations yesterday (26th), indicating that the economy may stagnate in the first quarter, contrasting with previous expectations of moderate growth. (fc/w)
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